Influenza en Mexico II / The flu in Mexico II

More than 160 (7 confirmed by certified lab tests, 160 suspected deaths and more than 2400 suspected infected, unconfirmed) cases are today (April, 28th) believed to have died from swine influenza in Mexico. All the deaths are in Mexico despite 64 laboratory confirmed human cases with no deaths in the US and laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths in Canada (6), the United Kingdom (5), Spain (4), Germany (3), New Zealand (3), Israel (2) and Austria (1). According to the WHO, 112 cases are now confirmed in the world (link)

UPDATE April 29th, 2009 : First dead in the US: A Mexican child travelling from Mexico to Texas to visit family.

Link: BBC

So the obligated questions are:

1. Why is this? Why is people dying only in Mexico? Are we talking of different strains of the H1N1 virus? Are we dealing with DIFFERENT viruses? Perhaps.

2. Is this the result of different imunity responses related with human race differences, as it is the case with VON in the US?. Perhaps.

3. Is this the result of poor health care of the flu patients treated in the Mexican Public Health services? Perhaps.

4. Is it the result of the self-treatment ideology and going late to the health services when faced by cold-flu like simptoms by the Mexicans? Perhaps.

5. Is it the result of the sheer ignorance of our health officials in Mexico with decision power? Perhaps and most likely. (Just one example: Today the health secretary of Mexico City said in the "Asalto a la razón" tv show, live: When asked by the reporter about the ethiology of mad cow disease (MCD) , he said, -and I quote-: "Mad cow disease is a completelly different virus". Sir, MCD or bovine spongiform encephalopathy is not a virus but a prion, an infective protein. Or Calderon saying: "technically it is called an epidemic because it is a new virus and unknown in the rest of the world". ??????

It is also too early to know. But the answers to these questions are badly needed. The truth is that this mortality pattern is pretty weird and very atypical IMHO for a A-flu virus. As it is the fact that most cases of swine flu in Mexico are in the 25-45 years cohort. Totally atypical for a A-flu virus that normally affects the young and the old first.

Also (and may be more important):

What s going to happen when the first cases (confirmed) of swine flu appear in Asia, where the H5N1 avian influenza virus is still endemic? The fear of recombination of the two viruses is real and perhaps stronger efforts by the WHO would be needed to try to contain the swine virus(es) in order to avoid reaching Asia and the risk of recombination. So far I have seen nothing in the media about this (if you have please let me know).

Map and data source: The Guardian

Links:

WHO update

BBC swine flu outbreak map

The Guardian flu map

BBC news

CDC swine flu